Longevity, fertility and Demographic Transition in an OLG model.

The paper investigates the effects of declining mortality on fertility and income in the standard OLG neoclassical growth model under the assumptions of accidental bequests as well as fully annuitised savings. It is shown whether and how different countries may expect increasing or decreasing fertility rates under increasing longevity, and argued that mortality decline may be another explanation of the Demographic Transition process. In particular, the fact that some countries have completed the process while others are entrapped in the second stage may depend on the initial level of mortality as well as on differences in technology and preferences. It is also argued that the third stage may not necessarily occur in some less developed countries even if their mortality rates converge towards those of industrialised countries.