Macroeconomic determinants of anti-dumping filings : analyzing the role of GDP, growth rate, and merchandise trade balance in reporting and targeted countries

This study aims to explore the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the decision to file an anti-dumping (AD) initiation, focusing on the post-WTO period from 1995 to 2022 for both reporting and targeted countries. We analyze the 20 most frequent users of the AD mechanism and the 20 most frequently targeted countries through econometric analysis to determine how gross domestic product (GDP) volume, GDP growth rate, and merchandise trade balance (MTB) influence the frequency of AD initiations. Our findings indicate that at least half of the sampled countries exhibit a significant correlation between AD filings and at least one of the macroeconomic variables examined. In many cases, GDP volume and MTB not only affect a country's decision to initiate an AD investigation but also influence how often it becomes a target of such measures. Although the results are fragmented across different economies, they highlight the role of the macroeconomic environment in shaping the decision to resort to AD mechanisms. By adopting a dual perspective, considering both reporting and targeted countries, and incorporating MTB as a key variable, this research extends beyond previous studies to provide deeper insights into the macroeconomic determinants of AD measures. These findings suggest that macroeconomic conditions play a crucial role in shaping trade defense policies, highlighting the need for policymakers to consider broader economic trends when formulating AD regulations.