Macroeconomic Determinants of the Movement of the Yield Curve

Monetary policy has a significant effect on long-term interest rates and shocks due to inflation and monetary policy have the largest impact on the volatility of long-term interest rates. Long-term interest rates provide significant upward momentum on short-term interest rates and shocks to peso-dollar exchange rate and budget deficit have the strongest impact on the volatility of short-term interest rates. Inflation, peso-dollar exchange rate and non-performing loans significantly drive the medium-term interest rates and shocks due to these are the largest source of volatility for medium-term interest rates.