Macroeconomic Effects of the CGIF Scheme Using a Multi-Country Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

As a regional credit mechanism, the Credit Guarantee Investment Facility (CGIF) has been developed in East Asia, and its first credit guarantee is on the cards in 2012. This paper analyzes the potential macroeconomic benefits from CGIF on the basis of simulated scenarios using an ASEAN+3 version of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model. The results show that even if CGIF enhances several, but not all, of the ASEAN+3 members' credit fundamentals, it helps increase not only the credit-beneficiary countries' investment and real GDP, but also those of the other ASEAN+3 countries. © 2013 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.