Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness

This paper presents numerical measures of European consumers’ inflation expectations derived on the basis of European Commission qualitative survey data with different quantification methods, i.e. with the probability method, the regression method and the logistic (and linear) function method. The study aims at assessing differences between those measures and the resulting uncertainty in measuring inflation expectations of this group of economic agents. Moreover, in the empirical part of the paper the formation of expectations by consumers in European economies is examined, with a particular focus on estimating the degree of forward-lookingness of expectations.