Method of determining the value of an electrical energy contract

The distributors of electrical energy have to manage supplies efficiently, in order to minimize the costs of its purchase/sale. In practice, the cost depends on the difference between the current energy demand and the contract value. In the literature, methods for forecasting demand and valuing energy contracts are thus developed in parallel. This paper presents a two-step method for calculating the value of an energy contract. In the first step independent factors, on which the demand for energy depends, are identified; for example: energy load in past periods, meteorological data and the type of day according to the calendar. In the second step binary linear programming is used to determine the value of the energy contract. The criterion used is the minimization of the cost of energy purchase/sale. An example is presented comparing the cost of an energy contract based on the proposed method to the cost based on regression forecasts.