Methodology for predicting European short-haul air transport demand from regional airports

This work uses data from Civil Aviation Authority surveys to develop a methodology to model air trip generation within the Midlands region and air trip distribution between available airports. The technique applied in the modelling of air trip generation is that of propensity to fly, whereby the trip-making population are categorized both spatially and according to standard industrial classification for business trips and socioeconomic group for leisure trips. By estimation of growth rates in propensities to fly a new distribution of trip origins can be produced for the forecasting year. Distribution of these trips between East Midlands, Birmingham, Heathrow, Manchester and Leeds/Bradford airports is made using a model of the multinomial logit form. The explanatory variables contained within the model are access time, a frequency utility function which gives a diminishing marginal utility with respect to flight frequency, cost and an aircraft technology dummy variable, distinguishing services operated by jet and those operated by turboprop aircraft. Of these variables, flight frequency contributes most to overall utility. The approach allows forecasts to be made of market share under a variety of supply scenarios, greatly assisting in the decision-making of management and policy-makers.