Migration and Labour Mobility in an Enlarged European Union

How many will come? Thousands, millions? Does Europe need a New Iron Cuitain? These questions dominate the origoing negotiations of the East Enlargements of the European Union (EU) Western Europeans are afraid of being overflowed by cheap(er) eastern European labourers. It is feared that the removal of barriers to migration would lead to a mass exodus from eastern to western Europe. In this article. I draw a parallel between the southerly enlargement of the EU and the EU east enlargement with respect to migration. Then, I undertake an econometric estimate of South-North migration flows and assume that the estimated parameter are of exemplary significance for the eastern enlargement of the EU. As a result of some simulation exercises my calculations advocate that rather modest immigrant flows from Eastern Europe have to be expected in the EU, in free mobility of labour was allowed today. This paper is part of the HWWA rescearch programme "International mobility of Firms and Workers"