Mitigating Hypothetical Bias in Stated Preference Data: Evidence from Sports Tourism

One of the major criticisms of stated preference data is hypothetical bias. Using a unique data set of both stated and actual behavior we test for hypothetical bias of stated preference survey responses. We consider whether respondents tend to overstate their participatory sporting event behavior ex ante when compared to their actual behavior at different registration fees. We find that behavioral intentions accurately predicts actual behavior at a middle level of respondent certainty, over predicts actual behavior at a lower level of certainty and under predicts behavior at a higher level of certainty. This suggests that respondent uncertainty corrections can be used to mitigate hypothetical bias. Stated preference data can be used better understand actual behavior in situations where no data exist. Key Words: Hypothetical bias, stated preference data