Modéliser les trajectoires démo-économiques des individus et des ménages dans un pays en développement à l'aide d'un modèle de microsimulation dynamique. Application pour la Côte d'Ivoire

Microsimulation constitutes a particularly powerful instrument for evaluating the distributive impact of macro-economic shocks. All existing models applied to developing countries remain static. I develop a dynamic model able to account for the temporal dimension of macro-economic shocks and their interaction with demographic change. The model simulates, using various, data sources the principal demo-economic events, as mortality, nuptiality taking into account assortive mating, household formation, fertility, internal and international migration, school enrolment of children, expenditures and the generation of household income. The dynamics of the model are analysed by comparing the reference scenario with simulations under alternative hypotheses concerning demographic behaviour.