Model documentation report: Short-term Integrated Forecasting System demand model 1985. [(STIFS)]
The Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) Demand Model consists of a set of energy demand and price models that are used to forecast monthly demand and prices of various energy products up to eight quarters in the future. The STIFS demand model is based on monthly data (unless otherwise noted), but the forecast is published on a quarterly basis. All of the forecasts are presented at the national level, and no regional detail is available. The model discussed in this report is the April 1985 version of the STIFS demand model. The relationships described by this model include: the specification of retail energy prices as a function of input prices, seasonal factors, and other significant variables; and the specification of energy demand by product as a function of price, a measure of economic activity, and other appropriate variables. The STIFS demand model is actually a collection of 18 individual models representing the demand for each type of fuel. The individual fuel models are listed below: motor gasoline; nonutility distillate fuel oil, (a) diesel, (b) nondiesel; nonutility residual fuel oil; jet fuel, kerosene-type and naphtha-type; liquefied petroleum gases; petrochemical feedstocks and ethane; kerosene; road oil and asphalt; still gas; petroleum coke; miscellaneous products; coking coal; electric utility coal; retail and general industry coal; electricity generation; nonutility natural gas; and utility petroleum. The demand estimates produced by these models are used in the STIFS integrating model to produce a full energy balance of energy supply, demand, and stock change. These forecasts are published quarterly in the Outlook. Details of the major changes in the forecasting methodology and an evaluation of previous forecast errors are presented once a year in Volume 2 of the Outlook, the Methodology publication.
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|Subject:||energy planning, policy and economy | geothermal energy | COMPUTER CODES | LIQUEFIED PETROLEUM | PRICES | PETROLEUM PRODUCTS | ASPHALTS | COAL | COKE | DIESEL FUELS | ENERGY DEMA | OILS | GASOLINE | JET ENGINE FUELS | KEROSENE | REFINERY GASES | CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS | DEMAND | ENERGY SOURCES | FL | IDS | FOSSIL FUELS | FUEL GAS | FUELS | GAS FUELS | GASES | LIQUEFIED GASES | LIQUID FUELS | LIQUIDS | MATERIALS | NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS | ORGANIC COMPOUNDS | OTHER ORGANIC COMPOUNDS | PETROLEUM | PETROLEUM FRACTIPETROLEUM PRODUCTS | TAR rk coalk geothermal energyK At the same time it is essential for Japan t|
|Type of publication:||Other|
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