Modeling China’s agriculture support policy effects

Purpose China has shifted its agricultural policy from tax agriculture to support it. The purpose of this paper is to examine the agricultural policy changes of China in recent years, focussing on the support policy. China supports its agriculture sector through tax elimination, area payment and input subsidy. In this paper, the author intends to evaluate China’s agricultural support policy effect with a modified policy evaluation model (PEM). Design/methodology/approach The author modifies PEM used by OECD to estimate the effects of these support policies on production and farmer’s income. Findings The main findings are input subsidy policy has more effect than area payment policy in general; input subsidy policy has more effects on production while area payment has more effects on farmer’s income; and the sensitivity analysis further indicates that input subsidy policy has more influence than area payment as regarding production impact ratio, while area payment has more influence on income impact ratios. Practical implications Based on these findings, when it comes to the support policy in terms of area payment and input subsidies only, the author puts forward the following policy implications: to increase input subsidy in budgets and expand the covering scope, and to continue implementing area payment policy with more budgets. However, support policies playing an important role in improving production efficiency and marketing support should be given priority. Originality/value The main contributions of this paper are modifying the OECD PEM to China’s conditions; and quantifying China’s agricultural policy effects.