Modeling long-term dynamical evolution of Southeast European power transmission system

Southeast European power transmission system is modeled by analyzing the system as an evolving grid, which is continually upgrading in order to satisfy the increasing load demand and certain reliability requirements. We adopt a model (known as OPA model) which satisfies two requirements. First, the model is based on probabilistic line outages and overloads, and it models the network using DC load flow and linear programming dispatch of generation. Second, the model includes systematic upgrading of the production and transmission capacities of the electric-power system. The results show the most vulnerable transmission lines of the Southeast European power transmission system that need to be upgraded. Moreover, the results indicate that the electric power system of Southeast Europe is functioning well with 20% excess of electricity generation. In comparison with the actual excess, it can be concluded that merging the electric power systems of the separate countries in the region into a common trade will produce a great economic benefit in investment of new generation capacities.