Modeling Suburban and Rural-Residential Development Beyond the Urban Fringe

This article investigates how land-use regulations differentially influence suburban versus rural residential development. Particular emphasis is placed on how both the provision of municipal services (e.g., sewer and water) and zoned maximum density constrain higher density residential development. We estimated a spatially explicit model with parcel data on recent housing development in Sonoma County, California. To account for heterogeneity in compliance with zoning regulations, we used a random parameter logit model. The designation of sewer and water services was the most important determinant of suburban development. Meanwhile, it did not significantly affect the likelihood of rural residential development, which actually leapfrogged into areas well beyond them.