Modeling the yield curve of BRICS countries : parametric vs. machine learning techniques

We compare parametric and machine learning techniques (namely: Neural Networks) for in-sample modeling of the yield curve of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). To such aim, we applied the Dynamic De Rezende-Ferreira five-factor model with time-varying decay parameters and a Feed-Forward Neural Network to the bond market data of the BRICS countries. To enhance the flexibility of the parametric model, we also introduce a new procedure to estimate the time varying parameters that significantly improve its performance. Our contribution spans towards two directions. First, we offer a comprehensive investigation of the bond market in the BRICS countries examined both by time and maturity; working on five countries at once we also ensure that our results are not specific to a particular data-set; second we make recommendations concerning modelling and estimation choices of the yield curve. In this respect, although comparing highly flexible estimation methods, we highlight superior in-sample capabilities of the neural network in all the examined markets and then suggest that machine learning techniques can be a valid alternative to more traditional methods also in presence of marked turbulence.