Modelling EU‐GCC energy systems and trade corridors : Long term sustainable, clean and secure scenarios

Purpose – This article is based on the REACCESS research project, sponsored by the European Commission, with the objectives of evaluating the technical, economic, and environmental aspects of present and future energy corridors between the European countries (EU27) and their main energy suppliers. GCC countries have an important role to play given their role in EU energy supply and in greenhouse gas emissions. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – A single energy model was built by hard‐linking the TIMES integrated assessment model (TIAM‐World), the Pan European TIMES model (PET), and the RECOR model (REaccess CORridors), including more than 1,000 possible energy corridors supplying the European countries. Another major methodology advance was to create a hybrid objective function, combining the usual cost objective and a metric representing the supply risk incurred by EU27. The risk component was constructed via a novel approach that aggregates the elemental risk parameters of each corridor using a Min‐Max function. Four contrasted scenarios were assessed, based on security and climate objectives. Findings – Among the many results, it appears that a large reduction of the supply risk may be achieved at a very modest increase of the total energy system cost for EU27. Cross‐effects of climate mitigation and security objectives are also observed. Due to the diversification requirement, the contribution of GCC countries to EU energy imports increases under risk scenario. Sensitivity analyses show that the European energy system seems unable to reduce the market shares of fossil fuels import from MENA countries, including GCC countries, much below the reference case, proving the strong dependency of EU27 energy system from these countries. However, total fossil fuels imports, as well as total energy consumed, are decreased under the risk adverse scenarios. Originality/value – Methodological developments, as described above, result in an advanced tool to assess how to increase the “energy system security”, by reducing the concentration of supply countries, diversifying import sources but also reducing the energy dependence at the end‐use side.