Modelling feed consumption in the European Union : update and improvement of the Feed-Model (FeedMod)

A computer model called FeedMod was created in 2009 to improve the European Commission’s ability to understand the feed consumption of raw materials in the EU 27. In 2014, a new version of this model has been proposed; the main improvements are: a. Nutritional parameters have been updated using reference tables, opinions of local experts, literature and our own expertise (theme 1) b. New raw materials have been included (theme 2) c. Croatia has been added to the model (theme 3) d. The part of the model predicting on-farm feed has been largely redesigned (theme 4). The roughages consumption (grassland and maize silage) no longer depends from fixed coefficients but is dynamically estimated from actual grassland and silage production data. The overall on-farm consumption (roughages + raw materials) can be assessed and predicted; it is no longer the simple difference between the theoritical animal nutritional needs and the energy supplied by industrial compound feed. e. Model reliability has been improved through calibration (theme 5) and sensitivity analysis (theme 6) exploring the model's behavior in response to different scenarios of variability in inputs.