Modelling the Impact of 2003 CAP Reform on Crop Production. The Case of Durum Wheat in Italy

This paper aims to summarize some of the major results emerging from simulating the impact of the CAP reform (the so-called Fischler Reform or Luxembourg Agreement, LA) within the AG-MEMOD model of the agri-food sector in Italy. The paper shows in detail how the model generates impacts when alternative policy scenarios (Agenda 2000 vs. LA) are specified. As major evidence of this impact in the Italian case, the crop sector is dealt with in detail. In particular, the case of supplementary payments for durum wheat clarifies how the reform may specifically affect Mediterranean agriculture and how alternative specifications of the regime change in durum wheat support may relevantly affect the impact.