Modelling the impact of world bank policy-based lending: The case of Malawi's agricultural sector

This article uses a multi-market agricultural pricing model to analyse the impact of the World Bank's three structural adjustment loans (SALs) to Malawi on the smallholder agricultural sector. Three price policy scenarios are simulated on the model representing zero, partial and full compliance with the Bank's SAL price policy conditionality. These scenarios are analysed in terms of their impact on: the government budget; smallholder real incomes; maize production; exportable cash crop production; and the balance of payments. Critiques of the Bank's programme and the government and Bank bargaining strategies are assessed in the light of the modelling results.