Modelling the spatial distribution of shifting cultivation in Luangprabang, Lao PDR

This research develops an agent-based land-use model for shifting cultivation, where the spatial distribution of crop cultivation is dynamically determined by the relationship between demand and supply of crops. We apply and evaluate the model using statistical and geographic data from Luangprabang Province, Laos, where rice and other crops are cultivated in various forms, including shifting cultivation. Our model explicitly incorporates socioeconomic dimensions of shifting cultivation in which villages are assigned the role of decision makers. We evaluate the model by comparing the simulation results with the existing statistical data and remote sensing images from the 1990s. Our model provides reasonably satisfactory estimates of aggregate area and volume of each crop type at the provincial level. We also evaluate the model across differing spatial resolutions for shifting cultivation areas. We find that the model has limited explanatory power at higher spatial resolutions of 0.5 km to 2.5 km grid cells, but can account for the spatial patterns fairly well at more aggregate levels with the resolutions of 5 km to 10 km.