Momentum and macroeconomic state variables

We find strong evidence that momentum across asset classes is driven by macroeconomic state variables. By reacting to changes in the macroeconomic environment, the strategy performs particularly well in times of economic distress. This result is interesting for practitioners and academics alike the success of an investment strategy that simultaneously looks at relative momentum across currencies, bonds, real estate, commodities, and equities can be interpreted as a payoff for rational investors hedging against predictable changes in the investment opportunity set. Our results allow us to establish a link between momentum and more sophisticated predictive regressions. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2013