Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations and The Price Puzzle

This article re-examines the VAR evidence on the price puzzle and proposes a new theoretical interpretation. Using actual data and two identification strategies based on zero restrictions and "model-consistent" sign restrictions, we find that the positive response of prices to a monetary policy shock is historically limited to the sub-samples that are typically associated with a "weak" interest rate response to inflation. Using pseudo data generated by a "sticky price model" of the US economy, we then show that the structural VARs are capable of reproducing the price puzzle "only" when monetary policy is "passive". The omission in the VARs of a variable capturing "expected inflation" is found to account for the price puzzle observed in simulated and actual data. Copyright (C) Bank of England. Journal compilation (C) Royal Economic Society 2010.