Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in the CEECs: How Important are the Differences with the Euro Area?

We use a structural VAR model with short-term restrictions to investigate the relative importance of interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels in the monetary policy transmission (MPT) for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland over 1993:1-2004:3. Main results are as follows. First, in the three countries, following a positive shock on the interest rate, prices increase instead of decreasing, due to the immediate depreciation of the nominal exchange rate. The results thus exhibit an “exchange rate” puzzle conducing to the appearance of a “price-puzzle”. Second, no channel is very powerful for the MPT in the three countries. Nevertheless, in the recent years the exchange rate and the interest rate channels play a major role in Poland, compared with the same in the Czech Republic and Hungary. As nominal exchange rate fluctuations allow for greater real shocks dampening in Poland, the cost of entering EMU may be more costly for this country than for the Czech Republic or Hungary.