Moving Towards Probability Forecasting

This paper proposes an international collaboration between researchers in academia and policymaking institutions to stimulate and coordinate research on probability forecasting in macroeconomics, developing a toolbox for short-term prediction. The toolbox should include time series models, methods for forecast combination, and techniques for probabilistic forecast evaluation in order to reduce the setup costs and risks to both individual researchers and policymaking organizations. A particular emphasis should be placed on replication studies with the toolbox so that central bankers can be sure that they are utilizing best practice techniques to produce probabilistic forecasts of events of interest.Full publication: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2248714" Globalisation and Inflation Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific