Multi‐factor competitive internet strategy evaluation: search expansion, portal synergies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of a multi‐factor competitive real option model. Design/methodology/approach – The model is described, context of Google‐Yahoo! is developed, market share and other parameter values are estimated, sensitivities and alternative model specifications are shown, and model results are compared with accounting and also stock market valuations and conclusion emphasizes the need for further empirical and theoretical research. Findings – It was found that applications are feasible, but estimated parameter values are likely to be very approximate compared with internal company information. Hence it points to use as managerial decision tool. Research limitations/implications – Some limitations are the assumed duopoly model, and that historical data are adequate proxies for expected revenue, investment cost, volatilities and market share. The basic model assumes geometric Brownian motion, but the possible consequences of other stochastic processes are illustrated. Practical implications – Internal market share information should be compared with public data in making strategic investment decisions. Originality/value – Model adaptation and empirical application are unique, and of value to future empirical researchers, including stock market analysts as well as corporate decision makers.