Multicriterial Assessment of RES- and Energy-Efficiency Promoting Policy Mixes for Russian Federation

We focus on assessing RES- and energy-efficiency promoting policy mixes for Russia from multicriteria perspective with emphasis on GHG emission reduction. We start from two surveys: the first one studies country’s energy saving and RES potential to determine possible range of outcomes for policy mixes in question; the second one reviews corpus of relevant official documents to formulate policy alternatives, which the policymakers are facing. Our findings are then blended with forecasts of government and international agencies to obtain three scenarios, describing possible joint paths of development for Russian energy sector in the context of demographic, economic and climatic trends, as well as regulatory impact from three policy portfolios, for period from 2010 (baseline year) till 2050. Scenarios are modeled in Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) environment, and the output in the form of GHG emissions projections for 2010-2050 is obtained. We then assess three policy portfolios with multi-criteria climate change policies evaluation method AMS. Our analysis suggests that optimistic scenario is most environmentally friendly, pessimistic one is easier to implement, and business-as-usual balances interests of all stakeholders in charge. This might be interpreted as an evidence of lack of governmental regulation and motivation to intervene in energy sector to make it greener and more sustainable.