Natural Rates of Interest and Sustainable Growth

The evolution of macroeconomic theory and monetary policy has brought us to a state that calls for critical reflection. It is undoubtedly true that no newcomer to the field can even begin to understand the current state of macroeconomics and policy formulation without understanding just how, dating from the pre-Keynesian era, the profession has arrived at this state. High theory today takes the form of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium analysis, while policy discussion, which concerns itself with economy-wide disequilibrium, centers on the effectiveness (or ineffectiveness) of old-style fiscal and monetary stimulants. The market is a process and so too is the theorizing about it. The history of macroeconomic thought reasserts its relevance at times of economic crises and almost inevitably leads us to the question “How far back do we have to go to start all over?”