Neighborhood Correlates of Homicide Trends : An Analysis Using Growth-Curve Modeling

This research blends ideas and concepts from social disorganization theory with recent development in growth-curve methodology to examine the association between neighborhood structure and homicide level over time. Using 15 years of sequential data, we estimate growth-curve models that emphasize the effects of neighborhood socio-economic and demographic characteristics on changing levels of three types of homicide — General Altercation, Felony, and Domestic — in St. Louis from 1980-1994. The analyses reveal several important findings. First, trends for each subtype differ, with the shape of the trajectory depending on the type of homicide under consideration. Second, while neighborhood factors are significantly associated with trends in General Altercation, Felony and Domestic killings, the factors that influence the rate of change vary for each type of homicide