New indicators for tracking growth in real time

We develop monthly indicators for tracking short-run trends in real GDP growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good real GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.

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Year of publication:	2013
Authors:	Matheson, Troy D.
Published in:	OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis. - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques (OCDE), ISSN 1995-2899. - Vol. 2013.2013, 2, p. 51-71
Publisher:	Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques (OCDE)
Subject:	Nowcasting \| short-term forecasting \| real-time data

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Extent:	text/html
Type of publication:	Article
Other identifiers:	10.1787/jbcma-2013-5jz741mh2czs [DOI]
Classification:	C51 - Model Construction and Estimation ; C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; E17 - Forecasting and Simulation
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010903576