Nonlinear Stochastic Effects of Substitution--An Evolutionary Approach.

Technological innovations have been investigated by means of substitution and diffusion as well as evolution models, each of them dealing with different aspects of the innovation problem. In this paper we follow the well-known research traditions on self-organization models of complex systems. For the first time in the literature, we show the existence of a specific niche effect which may occur in the first stage of establishment of a new technology. Using a stochastic Master equation approach, we obtain analytical expressions for the survival probabilities of new technology in smaller or larger ensembles. As a main result, we demonstrate how a hyperselection situation might be removed in a stochastic picture and thresholds against the prevailing of a new technology in a step-by-step process can be overcome. Coauthors are W. Ebeling, M. A. Jimenez Montano, and A. Scharnhorst.