Nord Stream 2 : a prelude to war

To understand the impact of keeping Nord Stream 2 off the map, we model the European natural gas market from the point of view of supply security. Focusing on the network aspects, we propose a novel framework to measure supply security, combining a linear programming approach with a risk assessment technique, expected shortfall (ES) borrowed from finance, particularly suited to measure extreme risk, such as the risk of failing pipelines. Shifting Russian gas exports from Ukraine to Nord Stream 2 increases risks for South-Eastern Europe, and the Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic Pipelines can only partially alleviate these changes.