Normality Bias in the Field: Evidence from Panel Data

Scenario studies in social psychology have shown that more negative feelings are attributed to negative outcomes following abnormal behavior than to the same negative outcomes caused by normal behavior. This study employs field data to test whether individuals avoid unconventional behavior in order to reduce anticipated negative affections. Using panel data from professional German soccer, we find evidence that after a positive game result, soccer coaches follow the “never change a winning team” heuristic, whereas after a lost game, coaches become more active and change the starting lineup. This effect is robust to the inclusion of potential confounders such as injuries, suspensions, and unobserved heterogeneity of the coaches and the teams and cannot be explained by increased subsequent team performance.