Nowcasting regional GDP : the case of the Free State of Saxony

Steffen R. Henzel; Robert Lehmann; Klaus Wohlrabe

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each quarter. It appears that regional survey results in particular improve forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional indicators. Hard indicators from the German manufacturing sector and the Composite Leading Indicator for Europe also deliver useful information for the prediction of regional GDP in Saxony. Unlike national GDP forecasts, the performance of regional GDP is similar across different information sets within a quarter.

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Year of publication:	2015
Authors:	Henzel, Steffen ; Lehmann, Robert ; Wohlrabe, Klaus
Publisher:	München : CESifo
Subject:	nowcasting \| regional gross domestic product \| bridge equations \| regional economic forecasting \| mixed frequency \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Bruttoinlandsprodukt \| Gross domestic product \| Regionales Wachstum \| Regional growth \| Nationaleinkommen \| National income \| Wirtschaftsprognose \| Economic forecast \| Sachsen \| Saxony \| Regionalentwicklung \| Regional development

Extent:	Online-Ressource (27 S.) graph. Darst.
Series:	CESifo working papers. - München : [Verlag nicht ermittelbar], ISSN 2364-1428, ZDB-ID 2065232-X. - Vol. 5336
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Type of publication (narrower categories):	Arbeitspapier ; Working Paper ; Graue Literatur ; Non-commercial literature
Language:	English
Notes:	Systemvoraussetzungen: Acrobat Reader
Other identifiers:	hdl:10419/110850 [Handle]
Classification:	C22 - Time-Series Models ; C52 - Model Evaluation and Testing ; C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications ; e70 ; R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes
Source:	ECONIS - Online Catalogue of the ZBW

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515377