Nuclear Deterrence Theory: The Record of Aggregate Testing and An Alternative Research Agenda

One of the most controversial subjects among students of international politics is the role of rational choice in deterrence. Disagreement is especially intense regarding application to the nuclear setting. Progress in that debate depends on identifying evidence appropriate for testing a wide range of propositions. The overall purpose of this review is to assess the record of aggregate evaluation in order to obtain guidance for further research. This investigation unfolds in several stages. First, studies appropriate for reassessment are placed in the general context of deterrence literature. Second, models, data, and testing procedures are presented and explained. Third, a pair of criteria for evaluation-validity and reliability-are applied to the above-noted quantitative studies. Fourth, and finally, new directions for testing are suggested, with emphasis on a more unified approach.