Nuclear energy generation sensitivity analysis : impact of Long Term Operations (LTOs)

The average operating age of the nuclear fleet in Europe is about 30 years. The operational life of a nuclear reactor is set in some Member States at 40 years, whereas in others the operating licence is granted for an unlimited period, subject to regular safety reviews. However, for most reactor types it is admitted that 40 years is an important point in time where specific issues need to be considered. Taking into consideration that the share of nuclear power in gross electricity generation in the EU is about 27%, decisions about long term operations (LTOs) of existing nuclear power plants represent an important factor in the definition of the energy mix in Europe. This "Nuclear Energy Generation Sensitivity Analysis" is based on the EUCO30 scenario developed using the PRIMES model. The model considers the achievement of EU climate and energy targets as constraints (including efficiency levels and percentages of renewables in energy generation). Investments levels in the different sources of energy resulting from the model are endogenous and market-based (that is, investments are profitable). In order to consider possible policy developments in the nuclear sector with respect to LTOs decisions, this "Nuclear Energy Generation Sensitivity Analysis" is based on five different policy options. These options differ with respect to i) the number of reactors entering LTOs and ii) the duration of LTOs for each reactor. One of the options used in the analysis closely replicate the information contained in the PINC. Known policy decisions (e.g. no nuclear countries and phase-out from nuclear of Germany) have been considered and set as constant in all the options.