Off the Books : Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure

Front Cover -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- About the Authors -- Main Messages -- Abbreviations -- Overview: Key Findings and Policy Recommendations -- What are the main sources of fiscal risks from infrastructure? -- Off-budget modalities drain public finances more often and on a larger scale than usually assumed -- Inefficiencies in public provision lead to fiscal surprises in the near, medium, and long term -- When it rains, it pours: Fiscal risks from infrastructure during bad times -- Implementing a reform agenda can create sustainable fiscal space for infrastructure -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 1: A Conceptual Framework for Assessing Fiscal Risks from Infrastructure -- Main Messages -- Introduction -- Fiscal Risks from Infrastructure -- In Sum -- References -- Chapter 2: Fiscal Risks Associated with Direct Public Provision of Infrastructure -- Main Messages -- Introduction -- Near-Term Risk of OVERSPENDING on Infrastructure Projects -- Medium-Term Risk of Unanticipated Capital Expenditure on Infrastructure -- Long-Term Risks of Economic Underperformance from the Squeezing of Public Spending on Infrastructure -- In Sum -- Note -- References -- Chapter 3: Fiscal Risks and Costs of State-Owned Enterprises -- Main Messages -- Introduction -- Size, Performance, and Cost Structure as Sources of Fiscal Risk in SOEs -- Performance of SOEs versus Performance of Similar Private Firms -- SOEs and Fiscal Risk: Slow Drip or Tail Risk? -- Predicting Fiscal Risks -- Capacity of SOEs to Deal with Shocks -- In Sum -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 4: Fiscal Risks and Costs of Public-Private Partnerships -- Main Messages -- Introduction -- Guarantees -- Renegotiation of PPPs -- Early Termination of PPPs -- Frameworks for Managing Fiscal Risks from PPPs -- In Sum -- Notes -- References.