"On Recent Macro-fluctuations and Seasonal Adjustment Problem : A Case of Japanese Import and Export Data" (in Japanese)
There have been large fluctuations observed in major macro-economic variables in Japan. When the official seasonal adjustment such as U.S. Census X-12-ARIMA is used, it has been important to make the change point analysis carefully. We illustrate the related problems by using recent official data of the import and export in Japan.