On Some Endogenous Probability-Migration Models

We analyze a probability-migration model in which the probability of migration depends on human capital, as produced by CHEN (2008). We show that the human capital can converge to a low or high value depending not only on the functional dependence of the probability of migration on human capital, but also on the initial human capital conditions and on beliefs of the population. Thanks to some new selection mechanisms of migration, we analyze precisely how economies with similar backgrounds may follow different equilibrium paths because their economic agents have different beliefs about their future probability of migration.