On the Causality between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation.

Although conventional wisdom suggests that export growth contributes positively to economic growth, empirical studies on the causal links between exports and output have provided little support for the exported growth hypothesis. The paper reexamines the direction of causation by handling properly two important issues in causality tests: This paper reexamines the direction of causation by handling properly two important issues in causality tests: the characteristics of the data, and the choice of optimal lags. The results of this study show that in a sample of 32 economies, the export-led hypothesis is supported by 17 economies and is strongly supported by 9 economies. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.