On the internal consistency of the term structure of forecasts of housing starts

We use the term structure of forecasts of housing starts to test for rationality of forecasts. Our test is based on the idea that short-term and long-term forecasts should be internally consistent. We test the internal consistency of forecasts using data for Australia, Canada, Japan and the United States. Using a simple model of forecast formation, we find that forecasts are not internally consistent, leading to a rejection of forecast rationality.

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Year of publication:	2013
Authors:	Pierdzioch, Christian ; Rülke, Jan-Christoph ; Stadtmann, Georg
Published in:	Applied Economics Letters. - Taylor & Francis Journals, ISSN 1350-4851. - Vol. 20.2013, 9, p. 847-851
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis Journals

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Extent:	text/html
Type of publication:	Article
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010976414