On the removal of energy products subsidies in an importing oil country: impacts on prices in Morocco.

Using input-output models, we analyze the effect of removing subsidized oil products in Morocco. We set three scenarios of increasing oil products by 25%, 50% and 75%, and symmetric decreases by the same amounts. We show that the effects are high in intensive oil products sectors such as transports and electricity and water sectors. Using the weights of the sectors, we deduce the overall inflation generated by direct and indirect requirements for the total economy. For example, an increase in oil prices by 75% generates a global inflation cost between 5.5% and 8%. Symmetric scenarios indicate no strong asymmetrical effects. The generated inflation may alter the stable path of inflation recorded over the past fifteen years putting pressure on the monetary authorities. Therefore, the change of strategy from managed exchange rate regime towards a flexible regime, extensively discussed, is now an urgent necessity.