On The Trade-Off Between Welfare and Peace: Evidence from West African Countries Using a Quantile Regression

The recent relapse of peace across Africa, especially in West Africa has been nurturing a wide range of concerns on the responsibility of both government and the international community. The effectiveness of actions against insecurity and terrorism with no harm on welfare remains the predominant outlook in all debates. With the aim to assess the current regional synergy against insecurity in all kinds, this study applies a quantile regression approach to investigate the effectiveness of governments’ efforts to improve welfare, in the context of increasing insecurity. Instead of focusing on the Human Development Index, repeatedly used in previous studies as an indicator of welfare, the approach in this study favors two different variables, which are less broad and more pertinent when analyzing poor economies. These indicators are life expectancy at birth and infant mortality. From the analysis, development aid is found to have no direct impact on welfare. On the opposite, government social spending contributes to increase life expectancy, reduce infant mortality, and therefore plays an important role in the enhancement of welfare. The impact of social spending on welfare is stronger in countries with poor welfare indicators. However, military spending remains an undermining factor in the effort to heighten households’ welfare.