One problem, three solutions: A simulation analysis of alternative Western defense policy options

This paper reports on a computer simulation study of the implications of alternative defense spending policies on the part of the Western Alliance. The recently developed GLOBUS Model, a large-scale computer simulation model incorporating representations of the internal and external political and economic dynamics of twenty-five important states, is the medium through which the study was conducted. Three defense spending options (an American-like 6% per annum real increase, the NATO Guideline of 3%, and a 0% or freeze policy) are explored- The implications in terms of the implementation of such policies on (1) the broader international system, (2) East-West relations, and (3) the allocation of resources are assayed. The main long-term effects illuminated are: (1) the higher the option implemented, the greater the level of militarization across the entire system, the greater the long-term levels of international hostility, and, generally, the more concentrated the capabilities and threat throughout the system; (2) a distinct tradeoff between improvement in the West's military capability postion and the tenor of East-West relations; and (3) given likely trends in world-wide economic performance, the high option could generate excessively high defense burdens with consequential tradeoff in the ability to supply government social services and transfers.