Only in the Heat of the Moment? A Study of the Relation between Weather and Mortality in Germany

In this study we analyze the relationship between heat events and mortality in Germany. The main research questions are: Does heat lead to rising mortality and if yes, are the eects persistent or compensated for in the near future? Furthermore, we consider dierences between heat eects in urban and rural environments. Cause specic daily mortality and meteorological data were connected on the county level. We allow for static as well as dynamic relations between extreme temperatures and mortality and compare dierent panel data estimation approaches. We nd that heat has a signicant positive impact on mortality. The strongest eects can be observed on the same day and the rst week afterwards. The mortality increase ranges between 0.003 and 3.5 per 100,000 inhabitants depending on the particular death cause. We do not nd a signicant negative, and thus compensating, impact in the medium term, which is contrary to the Harvesting Hypothesis. Using a value of statistical life approach we estimate that each additional hot day in Germany induces a total loss of e1,861M. Moreover, the environment plays an important role. The heat induced increase in mortality is signicantly higher in urban areas.