Output supply and yield response of rice in Nigeria: implications for future rice policy

With the local rice industry of Nigeria been hindered by inconsistent government policies, improper methods of production, high cost and scarcity of vital inputs of production among other constraints, domestic production of rice has failed to catch up with the increasing pace of consumption. In spite of the strong agricultural and natural resource base it hauls, Nigeria spends a total of about US$11 billion annually on importation of rice, wheat, sugar and fish. Attempts by previous regimes and the current government to reverse the net rice importer status of the country has proven futile regardless of the high tariffs imposed on imports, quantitative restriction through the use of quota and outright ban between the years 1986 and 1995. To inform future rice policy decisions on the way forward, the current study analyzed the output supply and yield response of rice in Nigeria. The results show that output of rice increases with increasing harvested area of rice, increasing farm gate price of rice, increasing nominal rate of assistance and increasing labor availability. It however decreases with increasing price of maize. Yield increases with increasing farm gate price of rice, nominal rate of assistance and labor availability. It however decreases with increasing harvested area of rice and price of maize. To improve on its rice supply, it is advised that policy measures be devised to couple area expansion with intensification to help mitigate the adverse effect of area expansion on yield, reduce labor shortages through appropriate investment in development of the rural communities (to help minimize rural-urban migration), ensure continuous government support to the sector, maintain fair prices for local rice farmers, and ensure appropriate transmission in times of price increment.