Outward Portfolio Investment From Mainland China: How Much Do We Expect And How Large a Share Can Hong Kong Expect to Capture?

This paper aims to provide an analytical framework for an educated guess of the potential volume of outward portfolio investment from Mainland China and how large a share Hong Kong could capture, should the Mainland's capital account be as open as any other developed economies. Based on our counterfactual scenario for 2005, total outward portfolio investment from Mainland China is expected to increase from the current 5% of GDP to 15%, should its capital account be as liberalised as in an average OECD country. Assumptions based on our projections for the future suggest that the amount could reach 23% to 54% of GDP. Hong Kong could capture around 10% of such investment. These scenarios appear reasonable when compared with outward portfolio investment position of major economies and past liberalisation experience in Japan. Our findings suggest that while Hong Kong's comparative advantage lies mainly in its proximity and cultural affinity with the Mainland, according to our model estimates, the most important determinant of bilateral portfolio investment is the domestic share of world stock market capitalisation, in which Hong Kong lags behind relative to other major financial markets. Our projections show that an increase in Hong Kong's stock market size to that of Japan could almost double the share captured by Hong Kong. The potential increase in portfolio investment from the Mainland is expected to benefit the financial services industry in Hong Kong, and increase the contribution from this sector to GDP. It would not only boost securities market activities, but could also foster the wealth-management and custodian services industries in Hong Kong.