Page 209
CODE 670-699189heliospheric MHD simulations of the observedcoronal mass ejections. The GIC site-specificLevel 1 forecasts combined with the site-specificshort lead-time Level 2 forecasts (based onobservations at Lagrange 1 point andmagnetospheric MHD simulations) were used toestablish the first full version of the GICforecasting system. Obviously, the establishmentof the first version of the full GIC forecastingsystem marks a major general milestone in theactivity.One of the most significant accomplishments ofthe reporting period concerns the end-user partof the activity. Namely, a tentative analysis ofthe economic value of the forecasting system hasbeen carried out in collaboration with EPRI. Amanuscript documenting the results that, forexample, emphasize the special role ofcatastrophic GIC events is under preparation.Also, integration of the GIC forecasting systemoutput to the SUNBURST decision tool used bythe North American power transmission industrywas started. These accomplishments are partlythe product of two fruitful Solar Shield projectmeetings arranged and run by the GESTinvestigator. The GEST investigator also led thepreparation of the Evaluation Report of the SolarShield project submitted to NASA AppliedSciences Program.In addition to both the activities described aboveand other regular scientific collaboration [e.g.,Huttunen et al. 2007], the GEST investigator hasbeen (co-)supervising and mentoring students inSouth Africa, Sweden and the U.S.. Morespecifically, the GEST investigator has been co-supervisingvia email GIC-related scientificwork carried out by a South African MScstudent and a Swedish PhD student. This work isdocumented in Wik et al. [2007] and in anothermanuscript that is being prepared with the SouthAfrican student. The GEST investigator alsoregistered as a mentor to MentorNet, the E-MentoringNetwork for Diversity in Engineeringand Science (www.mentornet.net) and is at themoment mentoring a Jamaican undergraduatestudying Applied Mathematics in New JerseyInstitute of Technology. It also worth noting thatthe GEST investigator has been leading thedevelopment of a space weather-related showfor the Science on a Sphere (SoS) (seesos.noaa.gov) located at the NASA/GSFCvisitor center. The raw material, includingwritten narrative, has already been generated andthe first version of the show is expected to beready within next couple months.Objectives for the Coming YearThe established full GIC forecasting system willbe integrated to the SUNBURST decision tooland with the help of SUNBURST GICobservations, a process to automaticallydetermine the confidence limits for both Level 1and Level 2 forecasts will be devised. The fullyintegrated system will be run on real-time and24/7 to gain experience at operating theforecasting system. The work on quantifying theeconomic value of the forecasting system will becompleted and the results of the analysis will bedisseminated to the space weather communityvia publication, for example, in Space Weatherjournal.The work on coupling the inner magnetosphericphysics to global MHD models will becontinued and test runs of real space weatherevents will be carried out. The theoretical workon modifying the mathematical methods used inmodeling the geomagnetic induction will becompleted and the new theory will be utilized inthe updated GIC forecasting system. Thetheoretical work will be published in a scientificjournal.The GEST investigator will continue to pursuethe public outreach aspect of the space weatherresearch via popular articles and possible spaceweather-related shows like that of SoS. TheGEST investigator will also continue, andperhaps look for new opportunities, to superviseand mentor students interested in space weatherresearch and natural sciences in general.
Saved in:
freely available
Saved in favorites
Similar items by subject
-
Find similar items by using search terms and synonyms from our Thesaurus for Economics (STW).