Panel Causality Analysis on FDI : Exports-Economic Growth Nexus in First and Second Generation ANIEs

Using panel data from 1981 to 2005, this paper examines the Granger causality relations among GDP, exports and FDI ill the three first generation Asian newly industrializing economies (ANIEs): Korea. Taiwan, Singapore, and in the four second generation ANIEs: Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, in addition to China. After reviewing th e current literature, we construct three variable panel V AR models for the first generation ANIEs, the second generation ANIEs, and finally, all seven economies as a group. We then use the fixed effects model to estimate the panel VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results reveal that there are bidirectional causality relations among all three variables for the three first generation ANIEs, but only statistically weak bidirectional causality between exports and GDP for the four second generation ANIEs. However, when all seven ANIEs are grouped for panel data analysis, we found FDI has unidirectional effects on GDP directly and also indirectly through exports, exports also cause GDP, and there also exists bidirectional causality between exports and GDP for the group. Economic and policy implications of our analyses are then explored in the conclusions