Particulate matter air pollution control programs in Japan — an analysis of health risks in the absence of future remediation

The objective of this case study was to assess potential health risks and productivity loss in the absence of future additional environmental control of particulate matter (PM) in Japan. Assuming a 10% decline in PM, the estimates of the numbers of possible cases of premature mortality and morbidity that could be prevented in the year 2010 were (1) 8700 long term deaths, (2) 12,000 cases of chronic bronchitis, (3) 24,000 cases of cardiovascular disease, (4) 10,000 cases of pneumonia, (5) 18,000 asthma attacks, and (6) 12,000 cases of acute bronchitis during a one year period. The best estimate of medical costs plus lost productivity in adults and children was $56 billion USD. When compared to a separately derived estimate of $31 billion USD in avoided pollution control costs, the health risk to no-control benefit ratio of 1.8 suggests that additional future pollution control policies would successfully prevent a large expense to the society in medical care and lost productivity while imposing a lesser cost to the private sector in control equipment, to government in oversight expenses and to society in opportunity costs.