PECAN SUPPLY FACTORS AND 1996/7 SEASON PRICE FORECASTS

Equations for forecasting US improved and native pecan prices were reasonably successful for one season ahead forecasts. USDA October pecan crop forecasts, June cold storage stocks, and a GNP price deflator were the explanatory variables. These variables are readily available early in the pecan harvesting season (September - December). Data in first differences appeared to explain price behavior and forecast better than data in levels. Forecasts for the 1996 season prices reflected 70 percent of the large drop in price from the 1995 season. Unprecedented carryin stocks may have been responsible for the larger than forecast drop in prices.